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Research Overview

Using social media, Internet searches, and electronic health records to predict incidence of flu and dengue in multiple locations worldwide. Using electronic health records to predict outcomes in pediatric intensive care units.

 

Research Background

Mauricio Santillana is an Assistant Professor at Harvard Medical School, a faculty member in the Computational Health Informatics Program at Boston Children’s Hospital, and an associate at the Harvard Institute for Applied and Computational Sciences. Mauricio enjoys working with clinicians in the design of decision-making support tools.

Mauricio is a physicist and applied mathematician with expertise in mathematical modeling and scientific computing. He has worked in multiple research areas frequently analyzing big data sets to understand and predict the behavior of complex systems. His research modeling population growth patterns has informed policy makers in Mexico and Texas. His research in numerical analysis and computational fluid dynamics has been used to improve models of coastal floods due to hurricanes, and to improve the performance of global atmospheric chemistry models. In recent years, his main interest has been to develop mathematical models to improve healthcare. Specifically, he has leveraged information from big data sets from Internet-based services (such as Google, Twitter, Flu Near You, Weather) and electronic health records (EHR) to predict disease incidence in multiple locations worldwide and to predict outcomes in hospitalized patients. Dr. Santillana has advised the CDC and the White House on the development of population-wide disease forecasting tools.

Mauricio received a B.S. in physics with highest honors from the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico in Mexico City, and a master’s and PhD in computational and applied mathematics from the University of Texas at Austin. Mauricio first joined Harvard as a postdoctoral fellow at the Harvard Center for the Environment and has been a lecturer in applied mathematics at the Harvard SEAS, receiving two awards for excellence in teaching.

Publications

  1. Irritability and Social Media Use in US Adults. JAMA Netw Open. 2025 Jan 02; 8(1):e2452807. View Abstract
  2. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dengue in Brazil: Interrupted time series analysis of changes in surveillance and transmission. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2024 Dec; 18(12):e0012726. View Abstract
  3. Conspiratorial thinking in a 50-state survey of American adults. medRxiv. 2024 Sep 14. View Abstract
  4. Modeling the relative influence of socio-demographic variables on post-acute COVID-19 quality of life. medRxiv. 2024 Sep 09. View Abstract
  5. Tracking COVID-19 Infections Using Survey Data on Rapid At-Home Tests. JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Sep 03; 7(9):e2435442. View Abstract
  6. Prevalence and correlates of irritability among U.S. adults. Neuropsychopharmacology. 2024 Dec; 49(13):2052-2059. View Abstract
  7. Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations. Nat Commun. 2024 Jul 26; 15(1):6289. View Abstract
  8. Trust in Physicians and Hospitals During the COVID-19 Pandemic in a 50-State Survey of US Adults. JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Jul 01; 7(7):e2424984. View Abstract
  9. Mathematical Assessment of the Role of Human Behavior Changes on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics in the United States. Bull Math Biol. 2024 Jun 18; 86(8):92. View Abstract
  10. Fine-Grained Forecasting of COVID-19 Trends at the County Level in the United States. medRxiv. 2024 Mar 25. View Abstract
  11. Cognitive Symptoms of Post-COVID-19 Condition and Daily Functioning. JAMA Netw Open. 2024 02 05; 7(2):e2356098. View Abstract
  12. Pediatric and Young Adult Household Transmission of the Initial Waves of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States: Administrative Claims Study. J Med Internet Res. 2024 Jan 04; 26:e44249. View Abstract
  13. Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations. medRxiv. 2023 Dec 11. View Abstract
  14. Community Mobility and Depressive Symptoms During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States. JAMA Netw Open. 2023 09 05; 6(9):e2334945. View Abstract
  15. Misinformation, Trust, and Use of Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19. JAMA Health Forum. 2023 09 01; 4(9):e233257. View Abstract
  16. Predicting favorable response to intravenous morphine in pediatric critically ill cardiac patients. Pharmacotherapy. 2023 07; 43(7):579-587. View Abstract
  17. A 50-state survey study of thoughts of suicide and social isolation among older adults in the United States. J Affect Disord. 2023 08 01; 334:43-49. View Abstract
  18. Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dengue in Brazil. Res Sq. 2023 Feb 09. View Abstract
  19. Leveraging Serosurveillance and Postmortem Surveillance to Quantify the Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Africa. Clin Infect Dis. 2023 02 08; 76(3):424-432. View Abstract
  20. Correlates of symptomatic remission among individuals with post-COVID-19 condition. medRxiv. 2023 Feb 01. View Abstract
  21. Association of Post-COVID-19 Condition Symptoms and Employment Status. JAMA Netw Open. 2023 02 01; 6(2):e2256152. View Abstract
  22. Gastroenteritis Forecasting Assessing the Use of Web and Electronic Health Record Data With a Linear and a Nonlinear Approach: Comparison Study. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2023 01 31; 9:e34982. View Abstract
  23. Using digital traces to build prospective and real-time county-level early warning systems to anticipate COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. Sci Adv. 2023 Jan 18; 9(3):eabq0199. View Abstract
  24. The evolving roles of US political partisanship and social vulnerability in the COVID-19 pandemic from February 2020-February 2021. PLOS Glob Public Health. 2022; 2(12):e0000557. View Abstract
  25. Research Letter: Association between long COVID symptoms and employment status. medRxiv. 2022 Nov 18. View Abstract
  26. Prevalence and Correlates of Long COVID Symptoms Among US Adults. JAMA Netw Open. 2022 10 03; 5(10):e2238804. View Abstract
  27. Methods for early characterisation of the severity and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants: a population-based time series analysis in South Africa. Lancet Microbe. 2022 10; 3(10):e753-e761. View Abstract
  28. Prediction of impending central-line-associated bloodstream infections in hospitalized cardiac patients: development and testing of a machine-learning model. J Hosp Infect. 2022 Sep; 127:44-50. View Abstract
  29. Machine learning approaches to predicting no-shows in pediatric medical appointment. NPJ Digit Med. 2022 Apr 20; 5(1):50. View Abstract
  30. Near real-time surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with incomplete data. PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 03; 18(3):e1009964. View Abstract
  31. Prevalence of Firearm Ownership Among Individuals With Major Depressive Symptoms. JAMA Netw Open. 2022 03 01; 5(3):e223245. View Abstract
  32. Predicting dengue incidence leveraging internet-based data sources. A case study in 20 cities in Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2022 01; 16(1):e0010071. View Abstract
  33. Association of Major Depressive Symptoms With Endorsement of COVID-19 Vaccine Misinformation Among US Adults. JAMA Netw Open. 2022 01 04; 5(1):e2145697. View Abstract
  34. A nowcasting framework for correcting for reporting delays in malaria surveillance. PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 11; 17(11):e1009570. View Abstract
  35. Association Between Social Media Use and Self-reported Symptoms of Depression in US Adults. JAMA Netw Open. 2021 11 01; 4(11):e2136113. View Abstract
  36. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater foreshadow dynamics and clinical presentation of new COVID-19 cases. Sci Total Environ. 2022 Jan 20; 805:150121. View Abstract
  37. Gender-specificity of resilience in major depressive disorder. Depress Anxiety. 2021 10; 38(10):1026-1033. View Abstract
  38. High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in long-term care facilities. Commun Med (Lond). 2021; 1:16. View Abstract
  39. Estimating the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the United States using influenza surveillance, virologic testing, and mortality data: Four complementary approaches. PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 06; 17(6):e1008994. View Abstract
  40. A dynamic, ensemble learning approach to forecast dengue fever epidemic years in Brazil using weather and population susceptibility cycles. J R Soc Interface. 2021 06; 18(179):20201006. View Abstract
  41. Toward the use of neural networks for influenza prediction at multiple spatial resolutions. Sci Adv. 2021 Jun; 7(25). View Abstract
  42. Factors Associated With Self-reported Symptoms of Depression Among Adults With and Without a Previous COVID-19 Diagnosis. JAMA Netw Open. 2021 06 01; 4(6):e2116612. View Abstract
  43. High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Long-Term Care Facilities. medRxiv. 2021 May 24. View Abstract
  44. Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021 05; 15(5):e0009392. View Abstract
  45. Influenza forecasting for French regions combining EHR, web and climatic data sources with a machine learning ensemble approach. PLoS One. 2021; 16(5):e0250890. View Abstract
  46. Socioeconomic status determines COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in Santiago, Chile. Science. 2021 05 28; 372(6545). View Abstract
  47. High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Long-Term Care Facilities. Res Sq. 2021 Apr 12. View Abstract
  48. Comparison of post-COVID depression and major depressive disorder. medRxiv. 2021 Apr 04. View Abstract
  49. Avoidable Serum Potassium Testing in the Cardiac ICU: Development and Testing of a Machine-Learning Model. Pediatr Crit Care Med. 2021 04 01; 22(4):392-400. View Abstract
  50. Persistence of symptoms up to 10 months following acute COVID-19 illness. medRxiv. 2021 Mar 08. View Abstract
  51. An early warning approach to monitor COVID-19 activity with multiple digital traces in near real time. Sci Adv. 2021 03; 7(10). View Abstract
  52. Association of Acute Symptoms of COVID-19 and Symptoms of Depression in Adults. JAMA Netw Open. 2021 03 01; 4(3):e213223. View Abstract
  53. Near real-time surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with incomplete data. medRxiv. 2021 Jan 26. View Abstract
  54. Socioeconomic status determines COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in Santiago, Chile. medRxiv. 2021 Jan 15. View Abstract
  55. Incorporating human mobility data improves forecasts of Dengue fever in Thailand. Sci Rep. 2021 01 13; 11(1):923. View Abstract
  56. COVID-19: US federal accountability for entry, spread, and inequities-lessons for the future. Eur J Epidemiol. 2020 Nov; 35(11):995-1006. View Abstract
  57. Rates of increase of antibiotic resistance and ambient temperature in Europe: a cross-national analysis of 28 countries between 2000 and 2016. Euro Surveill. 2020 11; 25(45). View Abstract
  58. The role of environmental factors on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak: an initial assessment in two spatial scales. Sci Rep. 2020 10 12; 10(1):17002. View Abstract
  59. Correction: Real-Time Forecasting of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Chinese Provinces: Machine Learning Approach Using Novel Digital Data and Estimates From Mechanistic Models. J Med Internet Res. 2020 Sep 22; 22(9):e23996. View Abstract
  60. Adding Continuous Vital Sign Information to Static Clinical Data Improves the Prediction of Length of Stay After Intubation: A Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach. Respir Care. 2020 Sep; 65(9):1367-1377. View Abstract
  61. Real-Time Forecasting of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Chinese Provinces: Machine Learning Approach Using Novel Digital Data and Estimates From Mechanistic Models. J Med Internet Res. 2020 08 17; 22(8):e20285. View Abstract
  62. Real-time estimation of disease activity in emerging outbreaks using internet search information. PLoS Comput Biol. 2020 08; 16(8):e1008117. View Abstract
  63. Estimating the Cumulative Incidence of COVID-19 in the United States Using Four Complementary Approaches. medRxiv. 2020 Aug 07. View Abstract
  64. SARS-CoV-2 titers in wastewater foreshadow dynamics and clinical presentation of new COVID-19 cases. medRxiv. 2020 Jul 06. View Abstract
  65. An Early Warning Approach to Monitor COVID-19 Activity with Multiple Digital Traces in Near Real-Time. ArXiv. 2020 Jul 03. View Abstract
  66. Communicating Benefits from Vaccines Beyond Preventing Infectious Diseases. Infect Dis Ther. 2020 Sep; 9(3):467-480. View Abstract
  67. Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China. Nature. 2020 09; 585(7825):410-413. View Abstract
  68. Patients with Cancer Appear More Vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2: A Multicenter Study during the COVID-19 Outbreak. Cancer Discov. 2020 06; 10(6):783-791. View Abstract
  69. A machine learning methodology for real-time forecasting of the 2019-2020 COVID-19 outbreak using Internet searches, news alerts, and estimates from mechanistic models. ArXiv. 2020 Apr 08. View Abstract
  70. Aggregated mobility data could help fight COVID-19. Science. 2020 04 10; 368(6487):145-146. View Abstract
  71. The Role of Environmental Factors on Transmission Rates of the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Initial Assessment in Two Spatial Scales. SSRN. 2020 Mar 12; 3552677. View Abstract
  72. Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China. medRxiv. 2020 Mar 06. View Abstract
  73. Fitbit-informed influenza forecasts. Lancet Digit Health. 2020 02; 2(2):e54-e55. View Abstract
  74. Internet search query data improve forecasts of daily emergency department volume. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2019 12 01; 26(12):1574-1583. View Abstract
  75. Noninvasive Ventilation Is Interrupted Frequently and Mostly Used at Night in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit. Respir Care. 2020 Mar; 65(3):341-346. View Abstract
  76. Differences in Regional Patterns of Influenza Activity Across Surveillance Systems in the United States: Comparative Evaluation. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2019 Sep 14; 5(4):e13403. View Abstract
  77. Improved Real-Time Influenza Surveillance: Using Internet Search Data in Eight Latin American Countries. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2019 Apr 04; 5(2):e12214. View Abstract
  78. Genomic, epidemiological and digital surveillance of Chikungunya virus in the Brazilian Amazon. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2019 03; 13(3):e0007065. View Abstract
  79. Improved state-level influenza nowcasting in the United States leveraging Internet-based data and network approaches. Nat Commun. 2019 01 11; 10(1):147. View Abstract
  80. Enhancing Situational Awareness to Prevent Infectious Disease Outbreaks from Becoming Catastrophic. Curr Top Microbiol Immunol. 2019; 424:59-74. View Abstract
  81. Estimation of Pneumonic Plague Transmission in Madagascar, August-November 2017. PLoS Curr. 2018 Nov 01; 10. View Abstract
  82. Comparison of crowd-sourced, electronic health records based, and traditional health-care based influenza-tracking systems at multiple spatial resolutions in the United States of America. BMC Infect Dis. 2018 08 15; 18(1):403. View Abstract
  83. Relatedness of the Incidence Decay with Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) Model," Farr's Law" and SIR Compartmental Difference Equation Models. Infectious Disease Modelling. 2018; 3(1):1-12. View Abstract
  84. Antibiotic Resistance Increases with Local Temperature. Nature Climate Change. 2018; (8):510-514. View Abstract
  85. Antibiotic Resistance Increases with Local Temperature. Nat Clim Chang. 2018 Jun; 8(6):510-514. View Abstract
  86. Relatedness of the incidence decay with exponential adjustment (IDEA) model, "Farr's law" and SIR compartmental difference equation models. Infect Dis Model. 2018; 3:1-12. View Abstract
  87. Accurate Influenza Monitoring and Forecasting Using Novel Internet Data Streams: A Case Study in the Boston Metropolis. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2018 Jan 09; 4(1):e4. View Abstract
  88. Combining Participatory Influenza Surveillance with Modeling and Forecasting: Three Alternative Approaches. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2017 Nov 01; 3(4):e83. View Abstract
  89. County-level assessment of United States kindergarten vaccination rates for measles mumps rubella (MMR) for the 2014-2015 school year. Vaccine. 2017 11 07; 35(47):6444-6450. View Abstract
  90. Advances in using Internet searches to track dengue. PLoS Comput Biol. 2017 Jul; 13(7):e1005607. View Abstract
  91. Using electronic health records and Internet search information for accurate influenza forecasting. BMC Infect Dis. 2017 05 08; 17(1):332. View Abstract
  92. Determinants of Participants' Follow-Up and Characterization of Representativeness in Flu Near You, A Participatory Disease Surveillance System. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2017 Apr 07; 3(2):e18. View Abstract
  93. Forecasting Zika Incidence in the 2016 Latin America Outbreak Combining Traditional Disease Surveillance with Search, Social Media, and News Report Data. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2017 01; 11(1):e0005295. View Abstract
  94. 949: DEVELOPMENT OF HEART, RESPIRATORY RATE, AND OXYGEN SATURATION PERCENTILE CURVES IN CHILDREN. Crit Care Med. 2016 Dec; 44(12 Suppl 1):313. View Abstract
  95. 955: A MACHINE-LEARNING ALGORITHM FOR OXYGENATION RESPONSE PREDICTION IN MECHANICALLY VENTILATED CHILDREN. Crit Care Med. 2016 Dec; 44(12 Suppl 1):315. View Abstract
  96. 1015: IDENTIFICATION OF PEDIATRIC VENTILATOR-ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS USING CONTINUOUS VENTILATOR DATA. Crit Care Med. 2016 Dec; 44(12 Suppl 1):330. View Abstract
  97. Editorial Commentary: Perspectives on the Future of Internet Search Engines and Biosurveillance Systems. Clin Infect Dis. 2017 01 01; 64(1):42-43. View Abstract
  98. Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico. Sci Rep. 2016 Sep 26; 6:33707. View Abstract
  99. Utilizing Nontraditional Data Sources for Near Real-Time Estimation of Transmission Dynamics During the 2015-2016 Colombian Zika Virus Disease Outbreak. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2016 Jun 01; 2(1):e30. View Abstract
  100. Cloud-based Electronic Health Records for Real-time, Region-specific Influenza Surveillance. Sci Rep. 2016 05 11; 6:25732. View Abstract
  101. Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Nov 24; 112(47):14473-8. View Abstract
  102. Combining Search, Social Media, and Traditional Data Sources to Improve Influenza Surveillance. PLoS Comput Biol. 2015 Oct; 11(10):e1004513. View Abstract
  103. Flu Near You: Crowdsourced Symptom Reporting Spanning 2 Influenza Seasons. Am J Public Health. 2015 Oct; 105(10):2124-30. View Abstract
  104. 2014 ebola outbreak: media events track changes in observed reproductive number. PLoS Curr. 2015 Apr 28; 7. View Abstract
  105. A case study of the New York City 2012-2013 influenza season with daily geocoded Twitter data from temporal and spatiotemporal perspectives. J Med Internet Res. 2014 Oct 20; 16(10):e236. View Abstract
  106. Using clinicians' search query data to monitor influenza epidemics. Clin Infect Dis. 2014 Nov 15; 59(10):1446-50. View Abstract
  107. What can digital disease detection learn from (an external revision to) Google Flu Trends? Am J Prev Med. 2014 Sep; 47(3):341-7. View Abstract
  108. Evaluation of Internet-based dengue query data: Google Dengue Trends. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014 Feb; 8(2):e2713. View Abstract
  109. Gradient-based estimation of Manning’s friction coefficient from noisy data. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics. 2013; (238):1–13. View Abstract
  110. Quantifying the loss of information in source attribution problems using the adjoint method in global models of atmospheric chemical transport. arXiv preprint arXiv:1311.6315. 2013. View Abstract
  111. A numerical approach to study the properties of solutions of the diffusive wave approximation of the shallow water equations. Computational Geosciences. 2010; 1(14):31-53. View Abstract
  112. A local discontinuous Galerkin method for a doubly nonlinear diffusion equation arising in shallow water modeling. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering. 2010; 23(199):1424–1436.. View Abstract
  113. Estimating small-area population growth using geographic-knowledge-guided cellular automata. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 2010; 21(31):5689–5707. View Abstract
  114. An adaptive reduction algorithm for efficient chemical calculations in global atmospheric chemistry models. Atmospheric Environment. 2010; 35(44):4426–4431. View Abstract
  115. On the diffusive wave approximation of the shallow water equations. European Journal of Applied Mathematics. 2008; 05(19):575–606. View Abstract

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